Friday, September 13, 2024

Scoring the debate

 

I’m revising my debate scoring. My first impression was a tie, which I called a Harris victory. But the only thing I recall about the debate today is “They’re eating the dogs.” Visual. Scary. Viral. Memorable. Repeatable. And directionally correct in terms of unchecked immigration risk. It’s the strongest play of the election. Trump won the debate. I gotta stop underestimating his game. Trump had no base hits in the debate but his long ball is still rising. Incredible.


Thursday, September 12, 2024

Springfield, Ohio

 


Let's understand the sequence of events in towns like Springfield, OH so you can understand why Donald Trump is popular: 1) They closed the factories and shipped the jobs to China and Mexico. 2) They shipped the best young men and women off to fight and die in useless, no-win wars that made D.C. rich. 3) They made the basics of life unaffordable through massive government spending. 4) They filled the communities with opioids and fentanyl. 5) They flooded these communities with thousands of culturally alien foreigners to drive down wages and make their hometowns feel like a different country. 6) They call the victims "racist" if they complain. Donald Trump is the only lifeline and the only voice these men and women have. And the "elites" wonder why he's more popular than ever and our movement to take back this country is stronger than ever.


Wednesday, September 11, 2024

Focusing on pets

It seems dumb to focus on the pets, but maybe they've tested it and it work?


https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2024-09-10/lions-and-migrants-andpet-cats-oh-my

Lions And Migrants And....Pet Cats? Oh My.

blueapples's Photo
by blueapples
Tuesday, Sep 10, 2024 - 11:12

blueapples on X

America's immigration crisis has manifest in a multitude of ways that are eroding the fabric of our country on political, economic, and social lines. With so much to examine over such a complex issue, it says a lot about the political consciousness of the average American that the discourse over those issues has been reduced down to sensationalist headlines which do little to advance any resolution of the crisis. The latest instance of this hamster-wheel-like approach to politics has arisen out of Springfield, Ohio, where an influx of Haitian immigrants has irrevocably changed the landscape of the small middle-american city. Springfield serves as a microcosm of the impact the Biden administration's immigration policy that Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris has been at the helm of as vice president has had on the lives of average Americans. Unfortunately, it has also come to serve as a shining example of how the opposition to that political agenda has failed to advance a narrative that irrefutably indicts Harris for her abject failure.

Despite Springfield providing an abundance of issues to examine, right wing opposition has seemingly fallen into the left's rhetorical trappings once again by staking itself to the sensationalist claims that Haitian immigrants in Springfield have started to rampantly butcher pet cats in the city to eat. Although the claim has some merit, albeit spurious at best, the headline grabbing subject matter it provides has seen the American right blow the issue out of proportion. In choosing to make it their hill to die on, Harris' opposition has provided her with a smokescreen she desperately needs to deflect away from a discussion on real issues by shifting to a point of conjecture she can use to dismiss genuine concerns raised over the impact of America's open border.

Following the explosion of attention across social media about claims that Haitian immigrants were eating the pet cats of residents native to Springfield, vice presidential nominee JD Vance amplified the eye-catching allegation. However, the lack of substance surrounding the claim became rather apparent soon thereafter. Springfield police and other municipal authorities stated no police reports regarding missing cats being taken by migrants had been filed.

Across X, conservatives ardently supporting the claim cited the arrest of Canton, Ohio resident Allexis Ferrell who was caught eating a cat on body camera footage taken by police as she was taken into custody for animal cruelty, among other charges. The footage included witnesses to the crime remarking about how Ferrell was seen eating the cat after the officer arresting her captured her blood covered mouth on camera when putting her into his police car. While the jarring footage certainly captures an Ohio woman eating a cat, there's just one problem: she isn't a Haitian migrant in Springfield.

The lone claim of pet cats being kidnapped and eaten by Haitian immigrants comes from an unsubstantiated claim on a private Facebook page hosted by residents of Springfield. Other residents took to a city council meeting to express their concerns over widespread instances they witnessed of migrants killing local wildlife. However, none echoed the claims about pet cats that became the central talking point of this controversy.

By giving the spurious claim the gravitas he did, Vance failed to create a discourse about Springfield highlighting the multitude of crucial issues caused by the Biden administration's immigration policy led by Harris that the city has become the utter embodiment of. In doing so, Vance neglected to draw the nation's focus on how the influx of 20,000 immigrants to Springfield in just a few short years was fueled by the Biden administration's economic policy that has cost millions of native born Americans their jobs so millions of non-native workers can be hired in their place. In August 2024 alone, the US added 635k foreign-born workers at the expense of 1.35 million native-born workers who lost their jobs. August's numbers are part of a larger trend going back to October 2019 that ZeroHedge pointed out in January 2024, a time span in which native-born workers lost 1.4 million jobs while foreign born workers gained over 3 million. This means that native born workers have seen no job growth for nearly 5 years.

Springfield serves as a cornerstone of a case study demonstrating the Biden led great-replacement-fueled economic policymaking that Kamala Harris would continue if elected. After de-industrialization caused automotive and other manufacturing jobs to pull out of Springfield beginning in the 1960s, the city's population fell from 80,000 to 58,000 from 1960 to 2020. The loss of 22,000 residents over that 60 year period was almost entirely made back up by the influx of immigrants that have come to the city since 2020, seeing Springfield's population grow back to near what it once was. Their arrival was fueled by a return of manufacturing jobs to the city which they were hired to in line with the trend of foreign born workers drastically outpacing native-born workers in job growth.

The impact of that influx of immigrants to Springfield was not isolated to the local labor economy. Cultural crossroads like the new language barrier introduced by the influx of non-English speakers took a toll on municipal services from healthcare to housing. The burden of dealing with the shifting demographic in the city caused a huge loss of productivity and profitability for many businesses. Rocking Horse Community Health Center is on instance demonstrating the cost of unabated immigration into the city. The local community health clinic saw its translation budget explode over tenfold from $43,000 in 2020 to $436,000 in order to be able to provide the Haitian immigrants arriving into the city with healthcare. In addition to the increased costs needed to accommodate immigrants, the health clinic has also faced a backlog of patients due to the time it has taken to deal with that language barrier when treating patients, causing routine appointments to run significantly longer than they would otherwise.

The strain on Springfield's economy and social services isn't limited to the healthcare sector alone. The city's school system struggled to deal with 350 newly registered students in 2024, most of whom did not speak English.

Additionally, aid made available to immigrants has fueled an explosion in housing prices in Springfield with rents exploding to between $2,000 to $3,000 a month. Local residents of Springfield left unable to afford the surging housing costs caused by the influx of immigrants has led to rise in homelessness according to Michelle Lee-Hall, the executive director of the Springfield Housing Authority. Springfield City Manager Bryan Heck echoed Lee-Hall's concerns about the influx of immigration and its impact on the local housing market when writing to the Senate Banking Committee on July 8th to ask for more federal funding. 'Springfield has seen a surge in population through immigration that has significantly impacted our ability as a community to produce enough housing opportunities for all,' he stated.

When writing to compel the Senate Banking Committee to offer more federal funds to deal with Springfield's growing immigration-fueled housing crisis, Heck cc'd Republican Vice Presidential Nominee Senator JD Vance. Given that Vance has served as Ohio's Junior Senator since being sworn into the office in 2023, the issues plaguing Springfield in recent years has been on his radar for much longer than the national focus that has been drawn to the city in the wake of claims regarding Haitian immigrants eating local residents pet cats. With a deeper understanding of the toll the Biden administration's immigration policy has taken on Springfield, the attention the city has gained provided a huge opportunity for Vance and supporters of the Trump campaign to draw attention to the economic and social decay Kamala Harris' tenure as "Border Tsar" has had on Middle America.

One resident of Springfield gave testimony to the city's commission about how the social degradation caused by the influx of immigrants into the city has had a profoundly detrimental effect on public safety. The 45-year resident of Springfield lamented how the outbreak of homelessness caused by the immigration-fueled housing crisis has led to immigrants squatting on her lawn. The 95-pound woman aired her fears for the safety of she and her elderly husband who find themselves unable to defend themselves against increasingly hostile squatters on their property. Out of fear for their safety, the couple determined that the time has come for them to move from the place they have called home for over 4 decades.

That testimony further illustrates the abundance of evidence that the cautionary tale of Springfield, Ohio gives to opponents of Kamala Harris and her failed vision for America. Yet, much like how the Biden administration overlooked the plight of residents of Springfield, her testimony largely fell on deaf ears of supporters of the lone political recourse she and her husband have. The compelling testimony of a Springfield woman pushed to a breaking point that caused she and her husband to move from the place they called home for generations failed to gain the traction that the viral unsubstantiated claim about Haitian migrants eating pet cats had because it lacked the same sensationalist headline. That misprioritization has proved to be a poor political calculation by those weaving the narrative about the chaos unfolding in Springfield to illustrate the immigration crisis debilitating America as it gives credence to the idea that their outrage is less about having empathy for the city's aggrieved residents and more about expressing xenophobic disdain for the immigrants displacing them.

By gravitating to sensationalism instead of substance, Vance has provided his opposition with the ammunition they need to continue peddling political rhetoric that shifts the narrative about immigration away from the stark reality the Biden administration has created. Vance's inability to harness the attention given to Springfield to maneuver that focus toward a more compelling argument indicting Kamala Harris' vision for America is another instance of the right wing falling into the trappings of the left in the war over narrative control.

The timing of this fallout coming on the eve of the first presidential debate between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris is especially inopportune as the democratic nominee will surely use the misguided narrative supported by Vance to shift the dialogue away from merited criticisms of the immigration policy she has been in charge of into a demagogic digression about how things like replacement theory are merely the paranoid delusions of right wing conspiracy theorists. Though that is not the case in reality, Harris' continued ability to turn to that rhetorical tactic has become aided by her opposition's inability to harness the abundance of facts they have at their disposal to highlight the downward spiral the country has fallen into under her leadership. If that ineptitude continues on then so too will America's descent down that dark path.


Monday, September 9, 2024

Late-stage imperialism

 https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2024-08-27/america-late-stage-imperial-decline

Meet Steve Hsu 

For those unfamiliar with Steve Hsu, he is one of America's most impressive polymaths. He earned a bachelors degree from Caltech when he was only 19. Here he is with one of his professors, the great Richard Feynman. 

Hsu went on to earn a PhD in physics, and is currently a physics professor at Michigan State University. He also started and sold an Internet company, and founded a genomics company, where he applies some of the original research he has done into human genetics. 

I suspect being the son of Chinese immigrants colors his view of America relative to China, but nevertheless, when someone of Hsu's talents speaks, he's worth listening to. In a post on X on Monday, Dr. Hsu explained why he thinks America as entered the "looting and grifting" phase of "late stage imperial decline". 

I've shared Hsu's post in full below. Following that, we'll close with a brief note on three trades we have teed up for later today. 

Authored by Steve Hsu on X

Why I Am Pessimistic About America

A longtime reader asked me why I'm pessimistic about "midwits" in US government, politics, and policy. My answer follows below.

In my view we're in late stage imperial decline. This is the "looting and grifting" stage, and it's very rare for really talented people to want to go into government - they're much more likely to be found in tech startups or maybe in academic labs or at hedge funds. There is no Kissinger or even Hermann Kahn or George Kennan in public service.

It's not the structure of the US system, it has more to do with the vibes of this era. PRC [The People's Republic of China] is in a totally different phase - lots of kids there want to work hard to build their Nation and still believe in heroic ideals.

This follows the general pattern of imperial growth and decline: The Fate Of Empires.

In my lifetime, the US passed through what Glubb called the Age of Affluence, and is beginning the Age of Decline.

Money replaces honour and adventure as the objective of the best young men. Moreover, men do not normally seek to make money for their country or their community, but for themselves. Gradually, and almost imperceptibly, the Age of Affluence silences the voice of duty. The object of the young and the ambitious is no longer fame, honour or service, but cash. Education undergoes the same gradual transformation. No longer do schools aim at producing brave patriots ready to serve their country. [ Or to discover great things for all mankind! ] Parents and students alike seek the educational qualifications which will command the highest salaries.

The 21st century American reality (the Age of Decadence):

Yeah, I calculated the NPV [Net Present Value], and, you know, it's just not worth it for me. I really believe in your project, though. And, I share your passion. Good luck.


Scoring the debate

  Scott Adams @ScottAdamsSays Subscribe I’m revising my debate scoring. My first impression was a tie, which I called a Harris victory. Bu...