Friday, October 31, 2025

The Economics of Culture

 

https://www.wsj.com/opinion/the-economics-of-culture-29c337f2?mod=opinion_lead_pos5

The Economics of Culture

People from cultures that emphasize productive habits tend to advance. The reverse is also true.

 ET

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ROBERT NEUBECKER

Culture is one of the most underrated ideas in economics. For decades, economists avoided invoking culture—the shared values, norms, beliefs, preferences and behaviors of a group—as an explanation for economic outcomes. It seemed too intangible to measure, too messy to model.

Thomas Sowell, whose legacy was celebrated recently at Stanford’s Hoover Institution, changed that. He was among the first economists to treat culture as an important economic variable. Mr. Sowell has argued that both human capital and culture drive mobility—more so, in his view, than discrimination or external barriers. Groups that develop productivity-enhancing traits such as skills, an orientation toward education and work, and thriftiness tend to advance. Those whose cultures don’t emphasize these things tend to fall behind. In Mr. Sowell’s view, culture is a form of capital, an accumulation of habits and know-how that powerfully influences a group’s progress.

How does culture relate to economic inequality? Does culture cause economic fortunes, as Mr. Sowell has argued, or does it mostly reflect them? If culture drives prosperity or poverty, then changing culture is central to reducing inequality. If, on the other hand, cultural differences are largely responses to inequality—if marginalized groups develop distinct cultural expressions out of necessity or lack of opportunity—then improving structural conditions may do more to close gaps than exhortations to change culture. Untangling these forces is difficult, because culture and economics are woven tightly together.

A growing body of research now takes seriously culture as an economic force. Economists define it as the bundle of beliefs and values that ethnic, religious and social groups pass down from generation to generation. Scholars such as Alberto Bisin, Thierry Verdier and Roland BĂ©nabou have modeled how shared beliefs and identity shape behavior. The takeaway is simple: Culture operates like capital, potentially influencing the productivity and progress of groups. But hard questions remain: To help a struggling group succeed, does it make sense to try to remake culture, down to clothing and music? Or should we instead focus on human capital, addressing cultural issues only insofar as they get in the way?

When I arrived at Harvard in 2003, these issues weren’t abstract. They were personal. Stepping onto campus felt like landing on the moon. A few years earlier I’d been working the drive-through at McDonald’s; now I was surrounded by people who had been to finishing school.

I’d been chosen as a junior fellow in the Harvard Society of Fellows, where a handful of postdoctoral scholars from different disciplines are given three years to think, write and collaborate. Only about a dozen economists had been selected in the previous 70 years.

It was the biggest culture shock of my life. Back home, my nickname was Ju-Ju. At Harvard, I was suddenly surrounded by people named things like Theodore Frickenshaw Farnsworth III. I showed up in faded jeans and NFL jerseys; they wore corduroy and ascots.

Yet over long dinners and too much wine and cheese, we found common ground. We’d stay up late debating string theory, behavioral economics, even the origins of satire. It made me question, as economists have for generations, whether and how culture shapes human behavior.

Cultural differences across racial and ethnic groups are unmistakable. They appear in everything from music and speech to food and fashion. “Seinfeld,” one of the most beloved sitcoms in American history, never captured a large black audience. A 2017 USA Today analysis found that the top show for white audiences, “NCIS,” didn’t even make the top five for black, Hispanic or Asian viewers. Meanwhile, the most-watched show among African-Americans, “Empire,” ranked in fifth place for Hispanics and didn’t make the top five for whites.

But cultural differences aren’t always as trivial as entertainment preferences. As Mr. Sowell argued in his 1994 book “Race and Culture: A World View,” culture can sometimes discourage behaviors that lead to progress—devaluing education, stigmatizing work or glorifying reckless behavior. That idea echoes the long-debated “culture of poverty” theory, which holds that poverty can perpetuate itself through self-defeating norms and expectations. Even subtle cultural differences could have real consequences, shaping opportunity, inviting misunderstanding or fueling discrimination.

For social scientists, the hardest part of studying culture is trying to find a way to measure it. In the early to mid 2000s, Steven Levitt and I tried to answer that question by focusing on one small but revealing expression of culture: the names parents give their children.

Using data on every child born in California over four decades, we uncovered a striking pattern. In the 1960s, naming differences between black and white parents were modest. Even in segregated neighborhoods, black families chose names similar to those of whites. But in the early 1970s, a profound shift swept through black America, especially in racially isolated areas. In the 1960s, the median black girl living in a segregated black neighborhood received a name that was only twice as common among black girls as among white girls. In the 1970s, that number rose to 20 times. A quarter of black families, mostly those in integrated neighborhoods, moved in the opposite direction, choosing names more similar to whites’ names. These patterns aligned with the rise of the Black Power movement and its influence on cultural expression.

Armed with millions of naming records, we then asked whether these cultural markers predicted life outcomes. We found no compelling evidence that having a distinctively black name harmed a child’s prospects once background factors were taken into account. A unique name reflected the neighborhood one was born into, not a destiny.

Still, culture may matter in more subtle ways. It shapes the formation of human capital—the skills, aspirations and habits that drive success. Mr. Sowell emphasized this repeatedly: The same innate ability can produce different outcomes depending on the norms that surround it.

Perhaps the clearest experimental evidence of an interaction effect between culture and human capital comes from a 2015 study by Leonardo Bursztyn and Robert Jensen, who tested how peer norms influence students’ willingness to invest in education. Working with more than 800 Los Angeles high-schoolers, they offered free SAT-prep courses. On some sign-up forms, they promised to keep students’ decisions completely private; on others, they said the rest of the class would know who signed up. In non-honors classes, students were 11 percentage points less likely to sign up for SAT prep if their classmates would know. For students taking both honors and non-honors courses, their reaction depended on which set of peers would find out; visibility increased sign-ups in honors classes but decreased it in other classes.

The experiment revealed a “social tax” on learning: Culture didn’t change the real payoff to education, but it changed students’ willingness to claim it.

After three years with the ascot aficionados, I realized that the cultural gulf between us wasn’t a cause of inequality; it was a symptom of it. Our differences didn’t hold us back; they made us interesting. By the end of our fellowship, they listened to more hip-hop while I learned to love gourmet cheese. Culture matters, but its highest purpose is to augment human potential. We should celebrate what makes groups distinct—so long as none of it gets in the way of learning, working and thriving.

Mr. Fryer, a Journal contributor, is a professor of economics at Harvard, a founder of Equal Opportunity Ventures and a senior fellow at the Manhattan Institute.



Thursday, October 30, 2025

Social contagion hypothesis lgbtq

 

https://www.wsj.com/opinion/evidence-backs-the-transgender-social-contagion-hypothesis-40937876?mod=trending_now_opn_1

Evidence Backs the Transgender Social-Contagion Hypothesis

The share of young people claiming another ‘gender identity’ exploded. Now surveys show it is receding.

 ET

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A Pride festival in Atlanta, Oct. 11. ROBIN RAYNE/ZUMA PRESS

I was an academic scientist at Penn State in February 2020, when I became the target of an online mob for tweeting about transgender identity. I shared a link to an article from the Guardian with the accompanying quote: “Sweden’s Board of Health and Welfare confirmed a 1,500% rise between 2008 and 2018 in gender dysphoria diagnoses among 13- to 17-year-olds born as girls.” My commentary was brief: “Two words: social contagion.”

Within hours, colleagues denounced me as a “transphobic” bigot. Anonymous activists emailed universities to poison my job prospects. A professional job board even published mock job listings warning others not to hire me. My academic career never recovered.

But I wasn’t making an offhand remark or comparing a group of people to a disease vector, as some accused me of doing. I was referring to research published by Lisa Littman, a physician and researcher formerly with Brown university, who had coined the term “rapid-onset gender dysphoria” in a 2018 peer-reviewed paper to describe a newly emerging cohort of adolescents—overwhelmingly girls with no childhood history of gender dysphoria or even sex nonconformity—who suddenly began describing themselves as transgender, often after friends in their peer groups did the same. Dr. Littman proposed that this pattern was best explained by social contagion, meaning the spread of ideas or behaviors through peer influence. The term isn’t an insult; it’s a well-established sociological concept used to describe how trends such as eating disorders and even suicide clusters can spread.

Suggesting that social factors might cause or contribute to transgender identification violated fashionable left-wing dogma: that “gender identity” is an innate and immutable trait, and that some people are born with one that conflicts with their sex. This claim underpins both medical practice and legal strategy—from puberty blockers, cross-sex hormones and surgeries for minors to arguments that “gender identity” deserves civil-rights protections akin to race or sex. Progressives treat those who question these ideas as heretics and bigots.

The dominant counterargument to the social-contagion theory, repeated endlessly by the media and activists, is that the sharp rise in transgender identification over the past decade simply reflects liberation: People today are more comfortable expressing their authentic selves. The favored analogy compares this rise to the historic increase in left-handedness once schools stopped discouraging it. As transgender activist and biologist Julia Serano put it in a 2017 article, “there wasn’t really a rise in left-handedness so much as there was a rise in left-handed acceptance” that allowed its true natural prevalence to emerge. John Oliver popularized this analogy on “Last Week Tonight” in 2022, insisting that the surge in trans identification was simply a sign that “people were free to be who they f— were.”

If transgender identity were an innate trait, like left-handedness, we would expect identification rates to rise at first when it became socially acceptable, then plateau and remain stable at a fixed level. If the phenomenon were instead driven by social contagion, we might expect a boom-and-bust pattern: a spike followed by a rapid decline once the social forces driving it weaken.

Recent data offer a mixed picture. An analysis of campus surveys by Eric Kaufmann of the University of Buckingham and the Center for Heterodox Social Science found that the share of college students identifying as transgender fell 50% between 2023 and 2025. Psychologist Jean Twenge’s analysis of the annual Cooperative Election Study, administered by YouGov, found that transgender identification among 18- to 22-year-olds declined by nearly 50% between 2022 and 2024. She concluded that “it looks like the peak of trans identification is in the past.”

A new report from the Society for Evidence-Based Gender Medicine seems to tell a different story. Drawing on data from the larger National College Health Assessment, the report found that transgender and “nonbinary” identification among U.S. college students is at a record high—between 4.7% and 6.7%—though it may be reaching a plateau.

Some activists may wish to interpret this report’s findings as evidence that transgender identity is innate and immutable, but the data bolster the social-contagion hypothesis. The overwhelming majority of those driving the trans craze fall into the “nonbinary” category—adopting identities which are said to be neither, both, or somewhere between male and female. These include labels such as “demiboy,” “genderfluid” or “two-spirit.” These are social identities, not biological ones. Unlike left- or right-handedness, which describe objectively measurable traits, “nonbinary” identities have no anatomical or physiological referent. They are conceptual, political and responsive to cultural trends—hallmarks of social contagion.

That doesn’t mean the transgender phenomenon will necessarily collapse. It’s possible that these identities will persist, not because they reflect a long-suppressed biological condition, but because activist, scientific and medical institutions have redefined transgender to encompass virtually any degree of nonconformity to traditional sex stereotypes. A masculine girl or feminine boy may now be labeled as “trans.”

Activists continue to argue in court that transgender identities are immutable. In Talbott v. Trump (2025), plaintiffs challenging President Trump’s executive order barring people who adopt “a gender identity inconsistent with an individual’s sex” from serving in the military argued that “gender identity” is “innate,” “deep-seated” and “impervious to change through external influences.” They argued that transgender-identifying people constitute a discernible class with distinguishing characteristics and a biological basis. This language mirrors civil-rights arguments for immutable characteristics such as race or sex.

The purported evidence for innate, immutable transgender identity is deeply flawed, however, as is clear upon closer examination. Studies of neuroanatomy, heritability and prenatal hormone exposure that claim a biological basis for gender identity are replete with small and selective samples, poor replication and uncontrolled confounding factors such as sexual orientation and cross-sex hormone treatment. Properly interpreted, they describe correlates of sex nonconformity and same-sex attraction, not proof of an innate transgender identity.

The notion that transgender identity is biologically hard-wired can’t explain why there has been a more than 20-fold surge in those identifying as transgender in the U.S. since 2010.

The social-contagion hypothesis was never hateful. It was purely descriptive: a recognition that social and cultural factors shape human behavior. For years, even hinting that such factors influenced transgender identities could end a career. Now, as data accumulate, this is becoming harder for anyone to deny.

The surge in transgender identification in recent years wasn’t the revelation of a hidden biological truth. It was a social phenomenon shaped by imitation, ideology and institutional reinforcement.

Mr. Wright is an evolutionary biologist and a fellow at the Manhattan Institute.


Dependency on government

This is a rational explanation.


Re: Democrats, Dependency and Illegal Aliens Sometimes it takes a tangential, unexpected political event to reveal real, fundamental truths that some political groups want to keep hidden. Such is the case with the current federal government shutdown and the Democrats. As Dems wail about the shutdown, the real hard dollar figures they keep talking about regarding their various Marxist wealth redistribution programs are having the unintended effect of revealing their long term strategy, and angering those of us who fund that strategy (some of whom until now were blissfully unaware of the real machinations of Democrat-led government). That basic strategy goes like this: 1. Create government wealth redistribution programs that create dependency in the general population, because dependancy means Democrat votes. 2. #1 has been true for decades, but the 21st Century has really amped that up on warp drive: Obamacare, Section 8 housing, SNAP, etc. These programs all take wealth from you and me and are then used to buy Democrat votes. 3. In the last ten years, Democrats have come to realize that their traditionally dependent demographic groups are moving up the economic ladder, and those same groups hate Democrats’ perverse social/sexual/amoral social policies. Thus, votes are evaporating. 4. Recognizing that their base of dependent voters was in decline, they knew they had to create new dependent voters. That is the exact reason why the Biden Administration refused to enforce immigration laws and let ~20,000,000 illegal aliens into the country, all of whom were immediately eligible for various Democrat wealth redistribution programs. 5. The Democrats figured there was no way Trump could win in 2024, so they were confident a re-elected Biden Administration could work an amnesty deal and voila!: 20,000,000 new, dependent Democrat voters would ensure another 50 years of Democrat dominance. 6. But Trump won and he is deporting those illegals. 7. Democrats still hold out hope for their plan as part of a 2028 Dem win, which is why their #1 goal is to hinder ICE in deportations and why they are willing to shut down the government over providing taxpayer-funded healthcare to illegals. Basically, Dems are fighting a delaying action, all based on the hopes of winning Congress back in 2026 and the Presidency in 2028, but at the same time they have to fight right now to preserve those programs that are needed to create that dependency after they do win. Almost every word you hear coming out of the mouths of Dem pols can be understood in the above context. It’s something they wanted to keep secret, but thankfully their own words have betrayed them. Thanks, Government Shutdown!!!


Yes, this shutdown has certainly been illuminating. - Healthcare provided for illegals. - ACA not workable unless the government provides massive, ongoing funding. - SNAP benefits for illegals. - SNAP benefits providing junk food for able adults.



I am going to introduce a bill to ban all non-citizens from any form of welfare. No Food Stamps. No Section 8 housing. No Medicaid. No Cash Assistance. Not one penny. Not one. If you want free stuff, go home.



I'm surprised people didn't know this was the plan all along. Cloward-Piven strategy was well publicized, and they actually went on to be professors. Saul Alinsky is another well-known communist apparatchik. Hillary Clinton gushed about how he mentored her. Same with Obama and his mentor, Marshal. Our academia, corporate, military, and government institutions have been infiltrated to the highest levels. I've been warning for decades. I'm glad it's finally mainstream.




Ottoman empire history

  Cynical Publius @CynicalPublius As many of you know I have been traveling in Eastern Europe and the Balkans. I plan to write an article o...