Wednesday, September 30, 2026

Untold economics story 2026

"Record real household income and record-low poverty are a pretty great story to tell."




Mario Nawfal
πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ I’m not sure there has ever been a table quite like the one Trump assembled at the White House today. Elon on his left. Jensen Huang on his right. Zuckerberg, Pichai, Bezos and many of the people actually building the AI economy around them. And Trump’s message to the room was remarkably simple: “We have a very big lead, and we’re gonna keep our lead.” Washington now explicitly talks about AI as national power. Trump says it could become bigger than the Industrial Revolution, and he increasingly describes the competition with China as one with a winner and no meaningful second place. A week after Xi sat down with many of these same technology leaders, they’re back in Washington together. I think we’re watching Silicon Valley become part of American statecraft in real time.


https://x.com/MarioNawfal/status/2105014067757039658?s=20


The Greatest Story Never Told - Trump’s economy has produced all-time record household income and an all-time record-low poverty rate. Now the Atlanta Fed predicts 5 percent GDP growth. You’d think somebody would notice. According to the latest from the Census Bureau, the poverty rate just hit its lowest level in U.S. history. Read that again. That’s not all. America just also hit its highest real median household income in history. The Atlanta Fed estimates that the economy is growing at an incredible 5 percent annual rate. That’s after years of Democrats promising us that 1.6 percent was “the new normal.” It’s also after barely more than a year and a half of Trump back in office. It gets even better. Child poverty fell to just 13.4 percent, the lowest official rate ever recorded. Hispanic poverty fell to a record low 13.9 percent. Real weekly earnings for blue-collar manufacturing workers are up 4.1 percent since January 2025; construction workers’ earnings are up an even higher 5 percent. It’s kind of a miracle. And it’s gathering steam. Yet to hear the Enemedia — and some conservatives — talk, the exact opposite is true. To them it’s all “muh gas prices.” Which is funny since the average gas price under Joe Biden was higher than the average during Trump’s second term, even with the war. Something is seriously amiss. If incomes are rising faster than prices, it isn’t affordability. It certainly isn’t household wealth. The income figure measures the household in the middle. Elon Musk getting richer can’t drag it upward the way he could an average. And the $2,250 gain in 2025 alone is what remains after adjusting for higher prices. People who spent years watching inflation eat their raises are finally getting ahead. Dismissing that isn’t showing concern for working families: it’s just myopic. And electing the people who gave you all that inflation — and promised to “skyrocket” energy prices to force everyone into an EV — isn’t even sane. That GDP number is especially striking. Remember that much ballyhooed 1.5 percent second-quarter headline that had the pundits celebrating Trump’s “failure?” I told you then: they were looking at the wrong number. What they were seeing wasn’t a slowdown in growth but a capex boom: the private economy spending its output to buy the equipment that would create an industrial supercycle. It’s happening. The ever-brilliant Larry Kudlow calls the burgeoning boom “the greatest story never told.” Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent says we’ve entered the “acceleration phase,” as the tax changes and deregulation start to produce the results they were literally designed to produce. I’ve been explaining that process since early 2025. Yet conservatives continue to buy the left’s lies. It’s time to stop. Working Families Are Getting Ahead Starting with Bill Clinton, America’s ruling class told us manufacturing was gone forever. China would build; we would consume. Russia and the Middle East would supply the energy. Europe would regulate. America would borrow, import, and manage its “inevitable” decline and displacement by more dynamic powers. Trump rejected every part of that nonsense. The workers now getting those bigger paychecks have every reason to be glad he did. Their employers aren’t just buying equipment and building new factories: they're bidding up the price of the people who know how to use them. They’re training even more. Nor is the capex boom ending anytime soon. Trump went out and recruited an incredible $18 trillion of investment into the United States in his first months in office. Equipment shipments have risen at an 18.9 percent annual rate in just the latest three months. And just yesterday, the President announced the largest steel plant in American history, a $15 billion titan set to begin construction in Iowa. The President also negotiated trade deals that pried open foreign markets to U.S. manufacturers; he also exempted foreign companies from tariffs if they begin building plants here. And as a condition of those trade deals — now finalized with countries representing 67 percent of global GDP — he forced countless countries accustomed to buying their energy from Russia and the Persian Gulf to buy it from the Gulf of America instead. The construction workers are building the plants and refineries. The roughnecks are drilling the wells. There will be years of work completing them, and much, much more work running them thereafter. How did that happen? Trump changed the tax code, and thus the incentives for investment. His One Big Beautiful Bill made immediate business expensing permanent for equipment, and added full expensing for qualifying American production facilities. Combined with unprecedented deregulation plus the trade deals, suddenly there’s no better place to build a factory than right here. Meanwhile, no taxes on tips, no taxes on overtime, and no taxes on Social Security (and what sort of obscenity is taxing Social Security anyway?!) help the bottom rung even more than the top. “Those jobs are never coming back” was a lie, calculated to cover for (intentional) Democrat failures. There was a time when an American family could live on one breadwinner’s blue-collar wages. That day is coming back, fast. An economy “growing” at Obama’s stultifying 1.6 percent takes nearly half a century to double. Young people can’t find jobs because they’re already taken: they’re locked out of their futures for half their lifetimes, and locked into dependency on the socialists. That is, after all, the goal. But an economy growing at 5 percent doubles in size in just 14 years. That translates into so much hiring so fast that labor shortages have to be cured by ever-higher wages. It also translates into so much tax revenue, even at lower rates, that you don’t just reduce the deficit: you start paying off the debt, as we did for four straight years before 9/11. Folks, this ain’t rocket science. This is the difference between Jimmy Carter’s economy and Ronald Reagan’s. It’s not like we haven’t seen this play before. Bessent calls it “parallel prosperity.” Wall Street and Main Street can both do well at once. A profitable company is sustainable: it expands, hires people, trains them, and pays them more. An unprofitable company does none of those things. Yet the “Democratic Socialist” treats the profits that make prosperity possible as an offense, one that must be crushed in the name of “social justice.” That’s the choice on November’s ballot. More Production, Less Inflation Nowhere is that point more obvious than deregulation, anathema to the Democrats. Trump has eliminated 129 regulations for every new one: there’s nothing like it in history. Which party do you think issued most of those in the first place? Not ours. A company wants to build; it has customers waiting; it can raise the money. But then it spends years waiting for government to let it proceed. Supposedly the delay protects us. But from what is it protecting us exactly? More goods? Better jobs? The possibility that somebody might make a profit? In the midst of the Depression, the Empire State Building was completed in just 13 months. Good luck getting a permit in even twice that time in today’s New York. A process that makes it prohibitively expensive to produce in America sends that production somewhere else. It doesn’t abolish the need for the product. Americans still buy it, but workers in some other country collect the paychecks. Democrats piled on regulations — and taxes — year after year, amounting to a multi-trillion-dollar burden on the U.S. economy and those pathetic “growth” rates that steal young people’s futures. Trump is rolling them back. Leftwing economists have long fretted (as they have about global warming, and global cooling, and global overpopulation, and the Ozone hole, and “Peak Oil”, and “two weeks to flatten the curve”) that all this new production will cause inflation. But this Phillips Curve nonsense was discredited 50 years ago: the truth is exactly the opposite. Production isn’t the enemy of price stability: it’s the means by which supply catches demand. The answer to a shortage of something Americans need is to make more of it. And if supply is plentiful, prices fall. Likewise, the “expert” class assured us that we needed to lower our expectations, that a “mature economy” can only grow at a lower rate: all the dynamic gains must come from developing economies like China’s. Yet what the heck is a mature economy? If you’d asked anyone in 1900, they’d have said they had one, just before nearly everything we have was invented. We are entering another such period, with AI and countless other new technologies promising productivity gains beyond anything we’ve ever seen. A worker with better tools can produce much more in the same hour, earning a higher wage without increasing the labor cost of each item he produces. And like Reagan before him, President Trump has laid a foundation that sets America up to dominate the next half century. Go Tell Our Story: The Election Is On You So why aren’t Republicans making this case every day? And no, I don’t mean “the Republicans” in Washington. Trump’s doing more than any President before him. Congress, however flawed, has enacted much of his legislation. The leaders aren’t the problem. We are. Historically, the President’s party — whichever President’s party — loses the midterms. But they don’t have to. Midterms are low-turnout elections, which means “every little thing we do is magic.” No need to appeal to the middle, no need to persuade the socialists. Just talk to your own friends and physically take them to the polls. To keep the majority, all we need is 1,000 extra votes in 20 House races — just four extra votes per precinct. Want to make a difference? You can. But that also means that if you don’t, you’re responsible. Republicans need to stop acting like entitled children, and start taking responsibility for their neighbors and their futures. It’s time to tell our story, over and over again. Record real household income and record-low poverty are a pretty great story to tell. So is the lowest murder rate in 126 years, a 99.9 percent reduction in illegal border crossings, or a thousand other things. Five percent GDP growth is exactly the boom Trump promised. And the equipment arriving at new American factories gives us every reason to expect more. This is nothing else but the greatest story never told. So go and tell it.


Tuesday, September 29, 2026

Economics of innovation

 



The robot that displaced a factory worker in 2019 made you richer. Not the factory owner. You. This confuses people who treat jobs as the end goal of economic life rather than the means. Henry Hazlitt demolished this error in 1946 in "Economics in One Lesson." When a machine replaces ten workers on an assembly line, those ten workers represent released labor, which redirects toward production the economy couldn't afford before. The machine, meanwhile, drops the price of the manufactured good. You buy the same shirt for less. That gap between what you pay now and what you paid before is real purchasing power, a raise you received without your employer signing anything. Let's look at televisions. A 60-inch 4K television cost around $1,500 in 2015. Today you buy comparable picture quality for under $350. Automated manufacturing drove that collapse. The factories didn't become charitable organizations; they competed for your dollars by deploying capital more efficiently, and the savings landed in your pocket. This process terrifies politicians because the benefits disperse invisibly across millions of consumers while the displaced workers are visible, concentrated, and angry. So politicians respond by subsidizing inefficiency, taxing automation (as the EU seriously proposed in 2017), or erecting tariffs that punish you for wanting cheaper goods. Every such intervention forces you to pay more than the market price, transferring your purchasing power to a protected producer and their employees. Free market thinkers have stressed one fact since Mises and BΓΆhm-Bawerk formalized capital theory: rising capital intensity, meaning more and better machines per worker, is the entire mechanism behind rising real wages historically. Britain improved living standards between 1760 and 1850 by replacing hand-operated looms with machines, freeing labor to produce medicine, railways, and eventually the electricity grid. Automation is capital accumulation made visible. You benefit from every iteration of it, provided the state leaves the price system alone to do its work.

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πŸ’―. And virtually all of the workers displaced by past advances in technology ended up reemployed, many in qualitatively better jobs. People need to chill out and enjoy the net benefits of new inventions.




I consider myself a Mises type fan of capitalism. That said, assuming robots and AI can do 99% of all jobs currently done by humans, something likely to happen within 5 years IMO if we can deliver sufficient energy, describe a scenario in which human workers can still obtain employment or earn a living. Is this situation such a warp of economic reality such that government intervention will be required so humans can live? Musk says the answer will be universal income. Frankly I can’t conceive of another solution.

Untold economics story 2026

" Record real household income and record-low poverty are a pretty great story to tell." Mario Nawfal @MarioNawfal · 12h I’m not ...