Excerpt from https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/iran-radical-regime-change-a42d96ea?mod=trending_now_news_2
On March 13, a massive billboard appeared in Tehran’s Enqelab Square. It showed Iran’s newly selected supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, standing in a trench and instructing commanders of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps to fire missiles at their enemies. The text suggested the mission is divinely inspired, comparing Khamenei to Imam Ali, a revered Muslim figure known for his legendary victory over Jewish tribes.
For opponents of Iran’s regime, the image is the visual representation of their worst nightmare: a militarized Iran ruled by a younger, hard-line leader where the Revolutionary Guard plays an even more dominant role.
The U.S. and Israel launched the war with the hope that killing top Iranian officials—starting with Mojtaba’s father, Ali Khamenei—would create the conditions for regime change or at least the emergence of leaders more willing to bend to America and Israel’s interests. In an address to the nation one month into the war, President Trump called the new leadership “more reasonable.”
Instead, the void is being filled by radical new leaders who have shown little interest in political compromise at home or abroad.
“The war changed the regime—and not in a good way,” said Danny Citrinowicz, who formerly headed the Iran desk for Israeli military intelligence. “We created a reality that is worse than what Iranians were facing before the war.”
Iran’s hard-liners—anti-Western ideologues with no tolerance for domestic dissent—have always had a place in the country’s overlapping and competing circles of power, their influence rising under the patronage of the elder Khamenei. But they now dominate Iran’s political and military leadership, energized by a war that many of them believe presages the return of a Shiite Muslim messiah.
At the center is Mojtaba Khamenei, who was chosen by clerics after surviving the airstrike that killed his father and several other members of his family. He hasn’t appeared in public since his appointment last month, fueling speculation that he was so badly injured he might not be involved in the day-to-day running of the country.
Apocalyptic ideology
After the Iraq war, Khamenei spent time in the city of Qom, where he was mentored by Ayatollah Mohammad Taghi Mesbah Yazdi, a radical cleric who is considered the spiritual father of Iran’s hard-liners.
Mesbah Yazdi—who argued that obeying the Supreme Leader was akin to obeying God—propagated a modern adaptation of an ancient messianic Islamist doctrine known as Mahdism.
The ideology, which is taught in Iran’s religious seminaries and during paramilitary training, promotes the view that building a genuine Islamic society and destroying Iran’s enemies—above all Israel—will hasten the return of Imam Mahdi, a figure Shia Muslims believe will bring peace and justice to the world.
Hossein Yekta, a senior Revolutionary Guard commander and close associate of Khamenei, on state television recently appealed to mothers to send their children to war under the name of the Mahdi.
“The Infallible Imam said that the Iranians would enter Jerusalem, and carry out a massacre there. The Iranians say: ‘Kill! Kill!’ The Infallible Imam said: ‘Kill! Kill!” said Yekta, who the European Union describes as a recruiter and indoctrinator for the Revolutionary Guard.
Once regarded as a fringe idea, Mahdism gradually became central to the ideology of the Islamic Republic thanks to the Khamenei family and their inner circle. It also became a key component of the indoctrination of the Revolutionary Guard.
“How much of this is empty narrative, how much is true belief? If you look at their behavior, you can tell that they are guided by the principles of their ideology,” said Kasra Aarabi, an expert on the Revolutionary Guard at United Against Nuclear Iran, a policy organization that opposes the Iranian regime. “The apocalyptic doctrine of Mahdism has guided the regime’s wartime behavior, and has provided justification for actions that could otherwise be viewed as irrational,” such as the expansion of the conflict to the Gulf states.
Half of the minimum six-month orientation for new recruits is spent on ideological training through sermons, lectures and the compulsory reading of booklets, according to research by Aarabi and Golkar. There are annual and compulsory refresher courses, they said.
Jaber Rajabi, who served in the Revolutionary Guard and studied with Khamenei in a religious seminary in Qom before defecting in 2016, warned Iran’s Arab neighbors about him before his elevation. In a televised interview in Arabic, Rajabi described Khamenei as a Shia Muslim extremist who regards not just Israel as an enemy but also potentially Sunni Muslim Arabs.
He also said Khamenei told him about dreams he had indicating he is the so-called Khorasani, a prophesied leader who heralds the end of time. Believers say he will emerge in the historical region of Khorasan to lead forces in support of the Mahdi and against the enemies of Islam.
“If anyone asks: What is the most dangerous thing that could happen to Iran and the region?” he said. “The answer is: Mojtaba Khamenei.”
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