https://x.com/HaroldWren22/status/1937907031329165818
Days ago, we were all looking at the pictures of Al Fordow to ascertain how badly the site was damaged following the B-2 strike using MOPs (gbu-57s).
The strike was clever-- first six went went through the air shafts as evidenced by the before and after the ventilation shaft building being obliterated. Why is this important? A lot of the criticism of this strike was people doubting the GBU-57 even with repeated strikes to same impact point could make it through the mountain. Spoiler: it did. But these six made it down the ventilation shaft WITHOUT having to bore through the mountain, directly into the main hall where the centrifuges and other sensitive equipment were.
Now about the other six impacts: the GBU-57 has enough power to go through 300 feet of hardned concrete OR rock. Meaning the first three would have broken apart the mountain and made it unstable, causing the mountain over the facility to be susceptible to collapse. The second three would have punched the rest of the way through these holes and also made it into the mail hall of Al Fordow at the other end. The holes match the schematics and are at either end of the facility.
So, to sum up, nine of the twelve GBU-57 MOPs would have entered the Al Fordow main hall nearly untouched where they detonated with full force. The other three would have been used to smash and disrupt the rock overhead making a collapse likely. The overpressure from the nine would have created the conditions favorable to collapse the site from the inside.
There is subsidance (think land slide and shape changes) to the mountain near the GBU-57 aimpoints suggesting the facility did indeed collapse.
More: there is evidence of extreme fire and its aftermath in the commercial satellite after photos, shown as a grey blue ash all over the mountain coming from the GBU-57 aimpoints, and this matches numerous videos and pictures taken by locals. There is photographic and video evidence that an intense fire inside the facility burned for up to eight hours after the strike shooting fire hundreds of feet in to the air for hours.
So what was it in Al Fordow that burned so intensely? The answer is in the reports. Official word has been released here on X that the Administration and US Military is sure that the Iranian Regime had moved the HEU 60% to Al Fordow for safe keeping as they didnt believe the site could be penetrated. This is likely true, given the facility had been under Intelligence/Surveillance/Reconnaissance watchy by ISR drones 24 hours a day, 7 days a week for months.
So what was it that burned?? The Highly Enriched Uranium. I checked the Material Safety Data Sheet on Uranium 235 **powder** and here is what it says:
Is Uranium 235 Flammable?
Yes, powdered uranium-235 is flammable. Uranium metal powder is autopyrophoric and can burn spontaneously at room temperature in the presence of air, oxygen, and water.4 The adiabatic flame temperature of uranium in air and oxygen are 3773 K and 4843 K, respectively.2 Additionally, uranium is highly flammable, and finely powdered uranium can literally catch fire on contact with air.
Now lets talk about Natanz. Some reports of OSINT accounts, and others like Jenn Griffin are claiming Natanz was also not struck sufficiently. Here's what we know: Natanz wasnt buried half as deep as Al Fordow. It was well within the capabilities of a single GBU-57 to penetrate and destroy. However we know for sure they used two GBU-57s on that site, and the aimpoint where it entered the underground facility is visible on commercial satellite imagery.
In short, all three facilities are 100% dead. There's no undoing what was done to them, they are a total loss. And there is strong circumstantial evidence the Highly Enriched Uranium is also gone, having been the fuel that caused the intense fire at Al Fordow.
Another tell: Israel hasnt felt the need to revisit any of those sites with aircraft other than Al Fordow for good measure. NATO is jubilant.
The middle east nations are also happy with the outcome of the strike. The reality is, if those sites survived, even just partially, there's no way the reaction across the board would be this pleased with the outcome.
The disinformation about the effectiveness of this strike is politically motivated, not supported by the data that is publicly available. Now, think about the ISR data we dont have. The reason the White House and Pentagon are speaking with such certainty is because they ARE certain. Operation Midnight Hammer was a total success.
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