Tuesday, October 22, 2024

"Prosperity" in Oct 2024

Journalists are praising the economy and stock market without mentioning that the Biden/Harris administration is propping up the economy with massive debt.


In just three weeks, total U.S. debt skyrocketed by $473 billion!



If there is not radical reduction of government expenditures, then, just like an individual who has taken on too much debt, America will become de facto bankrupt. The interest on the debt is trending to rapidly absorb all tax revenue, leaving nothing for critical needs.



This is not Apple, Tesla or even Nvidia. This is interest payments on the US national debt of $36 trillion. We now pay nearly $1.2 trillion per year in interest on the debt, about 23% of all taxes, tariffs and fees collected by the US govt goes to paying interest on the debt.





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Another Message of the Markets

Recently this column noted that, whether one fears a Harris win or a Trump win in November, investors seem very convinced that the United States will continue to thrive. Investors remain bullish on America, regardless of who becomes the next president.

But are investors too bullish on the presidents of American businesses? Jason Trennert of Strategas writes today:

By almost every metric we track, the broader stock market is expensive by historical standards. At the same time, profits margins for the S&P 500 are at all-time highs and the market’s Return on Equity is significantly higher than its 10-year average. Only the Materials, Health Care, and Real Estate sectors are below their average 10-year ROE. One could be forgiven for thinking that we have reached some sort of new Olympian age in management skill in which corporate leadership has simultaneously cracked the code of managing costs effectively while simultaneously walking a knife’s edge between
caution and risk while making capital allocation decisions. Of course, secularly low interest rates for 15 years can hide a multitude of sins. Of course, higher and more variable long-term interest rates might make the game a bit harder.
… the greatest risk to both C-suite executives and investors alike may be complacency and an outsized respect for their own management skill. Those of us of a certain age or experience never quite completely trust prosperity, often, at least in the United States, to our detriment. Still, I can’t help remembering the words of Warren Buffett when he said “I try to buy stock in businesses that are so wonderful that an idiot can run them. Because sooner or later, one will.”

https://www.wsj.com/opinion/has-harris-given-up-on-harris-7ca55ea1?st=LsdTmm&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink





ELECTION INTERFERENCE: The Biden-Harris regime is recklessly pumping debt into the economy, hoping to create an illusion of prosperity while saddling future generations with a crippling burden. In just three weeks, total U.S. debt skyrocketed by $473 billion, reaching a record $35.8 trillion—equivalent to $1,450 per American added in mere weeks. Each citizen now bears $103,700 in national debt. Meanwhile, interest payments surpassed $1 trillion in 2024, costing every American $3,360 in interest alone. This fiscal irresponsibility is an unsustainable gimmick to hide the true state of the economy. h/t
@KobeissiLetter
Absolutely, it's way more devious than it looks on the surface. This isn’t just reckless spending, it’s Janet Yellen playing central banker behind the scenes with "Activist Treasury Issuance" (ATI). Instead of balancing long term and short term debt like usual, she’s flooding the market with short term T-Bills. It’s like a sneaky backdoor version of quantitative easing, loosening financial conditions without the Fed officially touching interest rates. It’s a smoke and mirrors trick to prop up the economy while adding even more to the debt pile. They’re playing a game, making it look like there’s no fire while pouring gasoline all over the place. And when the bill comes due? It's going to be on our backs, no question.

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