๐ฉ๐๐: ๐ง๐๐ ๐ฆ๐๐๐ก๐๐๐ฆ ๐๐ฅ๐ ๐๐๐ ๐ฃ๐ข๐๐ก๐ง๐๐ก๐ ๐ง๐๐ ๐ฆ๐๐ ๐ ๐๐๐ฅ๐๐๐ง๐๐ข๐ก.
Victor Davis Hanson has spent fifty years studying how wars end. When he says the tide is turning, it's worth listening to why.
His argument isn't based on what the Pentagon is saying. It's based on how everyone else is behaving.
๐ง๐ต๐ฒ ๐๐๐ฟ๐ผ๐ฝ๐ฒ๐ฎ๐ป๐. VDH's rule: Europeans never agree to go anywhere near a conflict unless they think the winning side has already been determined. They didn't help in the early days. Now they're starting to move. That movement is not idealism. It's a calculation. They've looked at the battlefield and decided which way this ends.
๐ง๐ต๐ฒ ๐๐๐น๐ณ ๐ฝ๐ฒ๐๐ฟ๐ผ-๐ป๐ฎ๐๐ถ๐ผ๐ป๐. The Saudis, the Emiratis, the Qataris — these governments have survived for generations by reading the regional climate with precision. When they expel Iranian military attachรฉs, when they intercept Iranian missiles over their own capitals and say nothing about American strikes, when the UAE reaffirms its $1.4 trillion investment commitment to the United States mid-war — they are not making ideological statements. They are placing bets. And they are betting on the United States.
๐๐น ๐๐ฎ๐๐ฒ๐ฒ๐ฟ๐ฎ. This is the one that should stop you cold. Al Jazeera — the Qatari state media network, historically critical of American military action, the network Tucker Carlson and the anti-war right love to cite against Israel — is now calling the U.S. bombing campaign brilliant and effective, and saying it has been underestimated. When the media outlet of a nation that hosts both the largest American air base in the Middle East and a Hamas political office starts praising American military effectiveness, the message is unmistakable: ๐ต๐ฉ๐ฆ๐บ ๐ต๐ฉ๐ช๐ฏ๐ฌ ๐ธ๐ฆ'๐ณ๐ฆ ๐จ๐ฐ๐ช๐ฏ๐จ ๐ต๐ฐ ๐ธ๐ช๐ฏ.
๐ง๐ต๐ฒ ๐บ๐ถ๐น๐ถ๐๐ฎ๐ฟ๐ ๐๐ถ๐ด๐ป๐ฎ๐น. A-10 Warthogs and Apache helicopter gunships are now flying strike missions in Iranian airspace at will. VDH's point: you only deploy those aircraft when there is effectively no air defense left to threaten them. They are slow, low-flying, close-support platforms. Their presence confirms what the Pentagon has been claiming — Iran has no meaningful air defense remaining.
Iran's strategy now is rope-a-dope. Run out the clock. Wait for American public opinion to shift. Hope the midterms create political pressure on Trump to stop. It is the only play they have left.
VDH's conclusion: if Trump sees it through — and he believes he will — the regime falls. Not in years. ๐ฃ๐ฟ๐ฒ๐๐๐ ๐๐ผ๐ผ๐ป.
๐ช๐ฎ๐๐ฐ๐ต ๐๐ต๐ฎ๐ ๐ฝ๐ฒ๐ผ๐ฝ๐น๐ฒ ๐ฑ๐ผ, ๐ป๐ผ๐ ๐๐ต๐ฎ๐ ๐๐ต๐ฒ๐ ๐๐ฎ๐. ๐๐๐ฒ๐ฟ๐๐ผ๐ป๐ฒ ๐๐ถ๐๐ต ๐๐ธ๐ถ๐ป ๐ถ๐ป ๐๐ต๐ฒ ๐ด๐ฎ๐บ๐ฒ ๐ถ๐ ๐ฏ๐ฒ๐๐๐ถ๐ป๐ด ๐ผ๐ป ๐๐บ๐ฒ๐ฟ๐ถ๐ฐ๐ฎ.
Fact-check of the key claims (as of today)
• Europeans shifting: Mixed but directionally supportive of VDH’s thesis. Some NATO countries have quietly allowed use of bases (e.g., UK Diego Garcia and Cyprus facilities) and are discussing naval patrols in the Strait of Hormuz. VDH’s rule (“they only join when they smell victory”) is interpretive—he’s reading hesitation turning to hedging—but it aligns with observed behavior after three weeks of US/Israeli dominance.
• Gulf petro-states betting on the US: Strongly validated. Qatar just expelled Iranian military and security attachรฉs (March 19) after Iranian missiles damaged its Ras Laffan LNG facility. The UAE publicly reaffirmed its $1.4 trillion investment commitment to the US mid-war. Saudi Arabia and UAE have intercepted Iranian projectiles aimed at their territory and stayed largely silent on US strikes. These are classic “revealed preference” moves by survival-focused monarchies.
• Al Jazeera praising the campaign: Real and notable. Al Jazeera (Qatari state-backed, historically critical of US/Israel actions) published an opinion piece titled “The US-Israeli strategy against Iran is working,” detailing how Iran’s ballistic missile launches dropped >90%, air defenses were suppressed in days, and naval assets were largely neutralized. That’s a remarkable tonal shift for the network that also hosts Hamas’s political office.
• A-10 Warthogs and Apaches flying freely in Iranian airspace: Confirmed by Pentagon updates and multiple outlets. These slow, low-flying platforms are now operating over the Strait of Hormuz and deeper into Iranian territory hunting boats, drones, and remaining missile sites. Joint Chiefs Chairman Gen. Dan Caine explicitly noted this only happens when meaningful air defenses are gone. (Iran’s navy has been declared “gone” after 7,000+ targets hit; air superiority over western Iran and Tehran was achieved without US/Israeli aircraft losses.)
• Iran’s strategy and regime-fall timeline: Iran is indeed playing for time—retaliatory strikes on Gulf energy, proxies, and shipping—hoping US public opinion and 2026 midterms create pressure. VDH literally said on air: “If Trump sees it through… they’re going to fall pretty soon… in two, three, four weeks.” That’s his historical read (regimes collapse fast once momentum is lost), not a Pentagon guarantee.
The missile that Iran launched towards Diego Garcia, if instead was moved north, and launched, could reach Paris.
The advertised range of this missile, was previously a little over half this distance.
A new additional reset.
https://x.com/midpushMike/status/2035198118640423149/photo/1
The opening hours of Operation Epic Fury were a masterclass in choreographed destruction
Tomahawks carved the corridors.
Hundreds of decoy drones flooded Iranian radar with phantom fighter squadrons.
While operators chased ghosts, real F-35s and B-2s glided through undetected.
F-15s hunted mobile launchers in valleys.
Carriers launched jets every 30 seconds.
Everything from submarines, destroyers, and stealth bombers was mathematically timed to impact five cities at the same second.
Iran spent 40 years preparing for this... it lasted all of one sunrise.
Source: AiTelly on YT
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